GSMA Forecasts Africa’s Mobile Growth Surge

Africa’s mobile sector stands at a pivotal moment. According to The Mobile Economy Africa 2025, published by the GSMA, the continent’s mobile ecosystem is driving socioeconomic development, even as it faces affordability, infrastructure and policy headwinds.

The report outlines a landscape of rapid technological transition, fuelled by the rollout of 4G and 5G rollouts, artificial intelligence (AI) integration and intensified efforts to bridge the digital divide.

The GSMA positions Africa’s mobile industry as both an economic powerhouse and a platform for social progress, describing a decade ahead defined by opportunity but dependent on structural reform.

Growth indicators point to expanding market potential

For operators and investors, the figures confirm Africa’s appeal as a growth market with substantial headroom.

The mobile sector contributed US$220bn, or 7.7% of Africa’s GDP, in 2024. That figure is expected to reach US$270bn by 2030. Public funding from the ecosystem amounted to US$30bn in 2024 through taxes and fees.

Subscriber penetration reached 710 million unique users, equivalent to 47% of the population, projected to rise to 53% by 2030. Yet nearly half the continent remains unconnected, highlighting the persistent opportunity for operators.

Mobile internet penetration lags further behind, with 416 million users (28%) in 2024, forecast to grow to just 33% by 2030. The technology mix illustrates the region’s transition: 4G became the dominant technology in 2024, accounting for 45% of connections and is expected to rise to 54% by 2030.

5G, at only 2% in 2024, is forecast to expand tenfold to 21%, signalling a major investment cycle ahead. Operators are expected to invest US$77bn in networks between 2024 and 2030.

The real challenge: Closing the usage gap

The report highlights a decisive shift from a “coverage gap” to a “usage gap”. Network availability has improved dramatically, 58% of unconnected Africans already live within mobile broadband coverage, yet adoption remains constrained.

Affordability is the central barrier, encompassing both device and service costs. Governments’ increasing reliance on sector-specific taxes, including levies on handsets and mobile money, has compounded the issue.

Recent fiscal measures in South Africa, Mali and Egypt have dampened adoption rates. Low levels of digital literacy further restrict usage, preventing many from realising the benefits of mobile internet access.

Spectrum, energy and security: Enabling the next growth phase

The GSMA’s analysis calls for “forward-looking” spectrum management to sustain investment and innovation. Affordable spectrum pricing, technology-neutral licensing and clear roadmaps for low- and mid-band allocations are essential for operators planning 4G and 5G expansion.

Energy access further represents a critical operational challenge. High costs and dependence on diesel generators threaten both margins and sustainability. Vodacom’s virtual wheeling platform in South Africa is cited as a breakthrough, enabling large-scale renewable energy procurement for its network sites.

Security has emerged as another priority. The report notes that mobile money fraud exceeded US$1bn in 2023. Operators are countering the threat through AI-driven systems, ethical hacking and stronger API frameworks.

Airtel Africa’s AI-powered spam alert service in Nigeria, Uganda and Tanzania and Safaricom’s use of ethical hackers and enhanced audits, exemplify proactive defences. The GSMA Open Gateway initiative, with standardised APIs for services such as SIM Swap and Number Verification, aims to strengthen trust across the digital ecosystem.

Operators diversify through AI and enterprise services

The industry’s revenue model continues to evolve. Operators are moving beyond connectivity towards digital platforms, financial inclusion and enterprise solutions. The GSMA highlights AI as both an enabler and a beneficiary of telecom innovation.

Under the African Union’s Continental AI Strategy, operators play a dual role: building the “networks for AI” through 4G/5G infrastructure, data centres and cloud platforms, as well as deploying “AI for networks” to enhance predictive maintenance and customer experience.

The enterprise digitalisation trend is reshaping business models. MTN’s Ambition 2025 strategy is presented as a leading example of transformation from telco to technology enabler.

Operators are unlocking new revenue through mobile money, open APIs and cloud solutions, while MVNOs and satellite providers diversify the competitive landscape.

A call for policy action and partnership

In a keynote address, Vivek Badrinath, Director General of the GSMA, reinforced the need for collective action: “Africa’s mobile sector is one of the most dynamic in the world, but we must tackle persistent barriers such as high device costs, energy availability issues and the lack of inclusive AI.

"By working together, governments, industry and development partners can make digital inclusion affordable, sustainable and meaningful for every African.”

The GSMA urges policymakers to prioritise handset affordability, inclusive AI language models and energy resilience. These three levers, it argues, will determine the pace and inclusivity of Africa’s digital transformation.

As MWC Kigali brings together government leaders, operators and technology innovators, the message from the GSMA is clear: Africa’s digital economy will thrive only through coordinated policy, investment and innovation that leave no one behind.