Juniper: As Direct-to-Cell Satellite Soars, MNOs Remain Key

Global direct-to-cell (D2C) satellite revenue is on a rapid growth trajectory, but the long-term upside lies in partnership, not competition, between satellite players and mobile network operators (MNOs).

Juniper Research’s latest forecast shows why satellite operators should resist the temptation to pursue full MNO status and instead double down on complementary, hybrid models with terrestrial networks.​

D2C: Rapid growth, partnership-led

Juniper Research projects satellite provider revenue from D2C services will jump from US$100m in 2025 to more than US$370m by 2026, a year-on-year increase of more than 260%.

Driving the expansion are the commercial launches that enable subscribers to connect to satellite networks using standard, unmodified smartphones, dramatically lowering the barrier to adoption.​

Crucially for telecoms stakeholders, the forecast assumes that satellite operators largely go to market via MNO partnerships, rather than bypassing them.

Juniper argues that D2C should be seen as an augmentation layer for terrestrial coverage – extending reach, resilience and availability, rather than a direct replacement for ground-based networks.​

Why full MNO status is a dead end

Speculation has intensified that some satellite players could pivot to full MNO models, particularly in light of major spectrum acquisitions.

With Starlink having secured more than US$17bn of US and global spectrum in 2025, some market observers have floated the idea that it could eventually compete head-on with existing mobile operators rather than remain a wholesale partner.​

This is the wrong direction of travel.

“A satellite-first MNO will struggle to provide connectivity services to consumers that are comparable to terrestrial MNOs. Satellite signals will be obstructed indoors, leaving subscribers with a disjointed connectivity service; reducing a service’s value,” says Alex Webb, Senior Research Analyst at Juniper Research.

“We do not expect satellite operators to compete with MNOs in the consumer sector.

"We believe their best path to securing a return on investment in their satellite constellations lies with partnerships with incumbent MNOs.”​

The indoor coverage problem

The central technical constraint is indoor coverage, which remains a critical determinant of perceived service quality for consumers and enterprises alike.

Even with low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations and improved link budgets, satellite downlink signals are heavily attenuated by walls, reinforced concrete and urban clutter.​

For a “satellite-first” retail MNO, it would translate directly into patchy indoor performance and inconsistent user experience, undermining any premium brand positioning.

To close that gap, a satellite operator would need to make substantial investments in terrestrial infrastructure – from small cells to macro sites – essentially recreating the cost base and operational complexity of an incumbent mobile operator.​

How D2C fits into a hybrid network strategy

Instead of replicating terrestrial networks, Juniper positions D2C as a strategic overlay that enables MNOs to offer near-ubiquitous coverage and resilience.

By integrating satellite links into their existing core and radio access orchestration, MNOs can extend connectivity to remote and underserved areas without the capex burden of full-scale rural roll-outs.​

Such models allow both parties to play to their core strengths: MNOs manage customer relationships, billing and indoor coverage, while satellite operators focus on orbital assets, spectrum and non-terrestrial reach.

Market intelligence for telcos and vendors

Juniper’s Direct to Satellite Market 2025–2030 research suite supports these forecasts and strategic recommendations.

The study includes market analysis and five-year forecasts covering more than 60 countries, delivering more than 10,000 data points on D2C adoption, revenues and deployment scenarios.​

For telcos, vendors and investors, the dataset is supplemented with a ‘Competitor Leaderboard’ and a structured review of current and emerging opportunities across both consumer and enterprise segments. 

Strategic implications for telecoms stakeholders

For MNOs, Alex’s commentary reinforces the idea that D2C should be treated as an extension of the existing network strategy rather than a threat to the core business.

Operators that move early to integrate satellite capabilities – commercially and technically – will be better placed to differentiate on coverage, resilience and premium service tiers.​

For satellite operators, the message is to resist the lure of going direct at scale in the consumer market and instead prioritise deep, API-driven integration with terrestrial partners.

In Alex’s view, the clearest path to monetising multi-billion-dollar constellations runs through those incumbent MNO relationships, not around them.​