Why Google's Mobile Earthquake Alert Failed in Turkey

Google’s Earthquake Alerts system, designed for Android devices, miscalculated the magnitude of a deadly earthquake in Turkey on 6 February 2023, with far-reaching consequences for both users and public safety expectations in telco-dependent markets.

The algorithm, forming part of Android’s Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system, estimated the initial shock at between 4.5 and 4.9 on the moment magnitude scale. In reality, the quake reached a catastrophic magnitude of 7.8. 

This failure in detection meant that only 469 people received the highest-priority 'Take Action' alerts for the quake, which killed more than 55,000 people in south-east Turkey. 

In contrast, 500,000 users received the lower-level 'Be Aware' notifications, intended only for light shaking. 

These notifications do not override smartphone Do Not Disturb settings — a crucial limitation given that the earthquake struck at 04:17, when most residents were asleep in buildings that later collapsed.

Missed warnings and algorithmic limitations

Google’s analysis, later published in the academic journal Science, confirmed limitations in the system’s detection algorithms. 

Post-event simulations indicated the system should have issued around 10 million 'Take Action' alerts to people within a 98-mile radius of the epicentre.

Later on the same day, a second large earthquake was also underestimated by the algorithm, though the system performed marginally better. It issued 8,158 'Take Action' notifications and close to four million 'Be Aware' alerts.

A Google spokesperson said: "We continue to improve the system based on what we learn in each earthquake."

However, the company had previously told the BBC in 2023 that the AEA system had "performed well" based on its initial investigation. The discrepancy between early statements and later published data has raised questions across the telecoms and public safety sectors.

Market dominance and missed accountability

With Android devices representing over 70% of the mobile phone market in Turkey, Google’s AEA system functions as the country’s primary earthquake warning mechanism. The system operates across nearly 100 countries and is described by Google as a “global safety net,” especially in regions lacking formal government-run warning systems.

This quasi-public safety role has led to scrutiny from both academic and seismological communities. Elizabeth Reddy, Assistant Professor at the Colorado School of Mines, has expressed concern about the delayed transparency surrounding the system's failure.

"I'm really frustrated that it took so long," she says. "We're not talking about a little event –  people died – and we didn't see a performance of this warning in the way we would like."

Her comments highlight the challenge for telecommunications providers and technology firms when assuming roles traditionally handled by public infrastructure.

Trust, transparency and telecoms responsibility

The incident has revived discussions among seismic experts and telecoms policy analysts about the trust placed in proprietary algorithms by public institutions.

Harold Tobin, Director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, called for greater transparency, telling the BBC: "I think being very transparent about how well it works is absolutely critical. Would some places make the calculation that Google's doing it, so we don't have to?"

His point raises a serious concern for regulators and telecoms providers alike: whether the existence of Google's alert system might deter governments or mobile network operators from developing or investing in their own national-level alert infrastructure.

Google maintains that the AEA is intended to act as supplementary technology and not as a replacement for national systems. 

According to the company: "Every earthquake early warning system grapples with the same challenge — tuning algorithms for large magnitude events."

This event underlines the limits of private-sector technology when applied to high-stakes, public safety environments. 

In markets like Turkey — where Android devices dominate and government-run alternatives are minimal or absent — a miscalculation on this scale results in widespread failure to warn the public effectively.